First Half of 2025 Outlook: Restaurant Edition

Sep 3, 2025

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The first half of 2025 has been a balancing act for small restaurant owners. Sales are steady, but higher costs, staffing shortages, and new Illinois policies are squeezing margins. Our 2025 Restaurant White Paper breaks down the details. Here’s a quick look:

Sales: Holding, But Traffic Soft

Restaurant sales sit around $98–99 billion a month, up 5.6% from last year. But customer traffic is weaker, with more operators seeing fewer diners than in 2024. Diners are cautious, so value and customer experience are key to keeping tables full.

Costs: Food & Labor Pressure

Wholesale food prices remain 30–40% higher than pre-pandemic, with beef, eggs, and coffee driving spikes. Menu prices are up too—4.4% year-over-year for full-service, but raising prices further risks driving customers away.

Illinois’ new $15 minimum wage and paid leave law also add payroll pressure, with labor already accounting for about one-third of sales.

Staffing: Persistent Shortages

Nationwide, restaurant employment has mostly recovered, but full-service jobs are still down 228,000 since pre-pandemic. Illinois trails even further, with turnover and hiring challenges remaining a top concern for small operators.

Illinois-Specific Headwinds

Beyond wages, Illinois carries one of the nation’s highest corporate tax rates, plus steep local taxes and fees. Many owners report nearly 25% of revenue goes to taxes across all levels, tightening already thin profit margins.